Mamun Islam

The prediction market not only prices the outcome, it also creates fake “experts”. A green PnL becomes a “macro view”, a lucky trade becomes “insight”. Risking money is considered knowledge, not facing randomness. Odds replace evidence, confidence replaces context, screenshots re ... read more on X

Once upon a time, prediction markets were considered a sign of intelligence. Now they seem like infrastructure built for discomfort. Liquidity hasn’t increased. That’s what’s taking over. polymarket. kalshi. limitless. And not just platforms Politics, sports, macro, disasters F ... read more on X

roast market: Prediction Markets Prediction markets went viral not for accuracy. They went viral for the drama of manufactured certainty. Truth was optional. Confidence was mandatory. Polymarket. Kalshi. Limitless. Billions of dollars flowing. Narrative upon narrative. Headline ... read more on X

Forecasting markets were fun until “Leaks won” Markets are all about converting people’s uncertainty into the possibility of truth. But on the big platforms, they are increasingly valuing the privilege of information. Sudden wins at the perfect time, odds are fixed until the bi ... read more on X

The year was going to be a turning point in history. In reality, only the loading icon turned. 2025 appeared in a futuristic costume, but inside was an expired beta build full of bugs, no documentation, and the perpetual lie of “fix coming”. Everything was almost ready meaning n ... read more on X

2025 was a mountain of confidence, and a barren plain of execution 😓 Twelve months spent in a kind of silent labyrinth where we thought of analysis as progress, and used hopium as verified data. Everyone had a shiny roadmap in their hands, but no one had a destination in their ey ... read more on X

2025 An open letter to this year You promised to take crypto to Valhalla with institutional hands. What you actually delivered was a textbook clean liquidation. Bitcoin touched 126 for a moment, everyone believed it. Almost 30% dump as soon as Q4 came, retail profit history befor ... read more on X

Reality check When the smoke emoji starts to look almost like a live window camera, you realize that city air is no slouch. In many cities, gray skies mean rain. In Delhi? It means the air is sharply “curated,” a mix of life and construction dust. Not toxic, but… carefully sel ... read more on X

“Fundamentals matter” You throw this word at the zero. Zero responds by buying a meme coin, The name is such that when you hear it, it feels like you fell on the keyboard with your mouth— DOGE, space, AI… all together. Decentralization is the future, But the person who created th ... read more on X

2025 was a year that was just loading, but never opened. Everything in the “building phase”, but nothing “built” Every project said it was coming seriously this time, This time, who ate up the whole year. Everything was “almost”— almost shipped, almost adopted, almost won. A y ... read more on X